Today we received the RCN import and kernel export figures from Vinacas for the month of June 2020 and this is a quick overview of the information.
On the import side, we noticed that Vietnam imported 203,427 mt of RCN in June 2020 which is 14,29% less than June 2019. The total for the year 2020 thus far stands at 634,609 mt, which is 12,11% less than in the same period Jan-June of 2019.
Whereas the imports from IVC during June 2020 were the biggest so far this year at 84,845 mt, the total out of IVC for this year is significantly lower than last year, namely 42,22% lower. This is consistent with the stories we hear out of IVC where supposedly still 350,000 mt is stored in warehouses in Abidjan which, according to rumors, the government of IVC only wants to sell after the general elections of October 31st of this year. If these rumors are true, there are a couple of things to take into consideration:
- Shipment of this IVC RCN will coincide with shipments of new crop out of Indonesia as well as Tanzania which usually take place during November/December onwards;
- Outturn of this IVC RCN is already rumored to be low, between 38-44, and the quality will not get any better if these are storied for a further 3-4 months before being shipped to Vietnam.
Last month, we reported for the first time that Vietnam also imported shelled kernels and this month Vietnam added 4,392 mt of these, bringing the total to 26,959 mt of shelled kernels for 2020. This number is equivalent to approximately 115,000 mt of RCN. As mentioned previously, these are, for example, kernels produced in Ivory Coast, however, these still need to be peeled.
On the export side, Vietnam exported 42,410 mt in June 2020 which is 4,44% more than a year ago in June. The total for the period Jan-June 2020 now stands at 232,433 mt which is 16,23% higher than last year during the same period.
The USA had a relatively slow month, but still imported 10,846 mt in June 2020 which was 13,65% less than June 2019. Total for the USA for Jan-June 2020 now stands at 74,101 mt which is 24,65% higher than the same period last year.
China continues to import considerably less than last year, Jan-June 2020 18,642 mt which is 29,94% less than the same period last year.
As far as the kernel market is concerned, it is still very quiet on the nearby, however, demand is increasing on forward positions, especially for 2021. Prices for W320’s for the nearby positions still range between USD 2,60 per lb (non-BRC) to USD 2,90 per lb FOB from BRC shippers depending on who you talk to. It is worth mentioning (again) that whereas demand has been negligible on the nearby, prices have not gone below the range USD 2,60-2,80 (non-BRC-BRC) for quite some time. Perhaps the conclusion of this should be that prices have reached the bottom of the market.