We received the import and export figures for October from Vinacas. This market report is a quick recap of the numbers compared to last year and our overview of the current market situation.
Import - Export figures from Vietnam
Import
Vietnam imported a total of 108,342 mt RCN in October, which is 18.57% less than last year during the same period, and 40% less than last month. It brings the total imports for 2020 at 1,374,797 mt RCN, 3.22% less than last year.
On top of that, Vietnam imported 4,631 mt of raw cashew kernels with Testa and white kernels which makes the total for this year at 46,834 mt, the equivalent of 208,151 mt RCN.
Exports
Vietnam exported 47,167 mt of cashew kernels in October 2020. It is 4.86% more in comparison to the same month in 2019. Since the beginning of the year, Vietnam exported 11.94% more than the period January-October last year. Despite the pandemic crisis, a total of 422,671 mt of cashew kernels were exported.
United States
To the USA, Vietnam shipped 11,211 mt in October, 12.33% less than last year.
During the period January-October 2020, the exports to the USA increased by 10.47% to 124,826 mt.
China
9,336 mt were exported to China in October. That is 33.60% more than last year. Since September exports to China are high after a few months of quietness because of the Covid-19 crisis. Since January 2020, 46,409 mt has been exported. That is 10.27% less than last year.
EU & Others
To the EU & others, Vietnam shipped 26,620 mt which is 5.61% higher than October 2019, and relatively similar to the quantity exported in September 2020. The total for the EU & others so far in 2020 is 251,437 mt meaning 18.11% higher than last year.
United States
To the USA, Vietnam shipped 11,211 mt in October, 12.33% less than last year.
During the period January-October 2020, the exports to the USA increased by 10.47% to 124,826 mt.
China
9,336 mt were exported to China in October. That is 33.60% more than last year. Since September exports to China are high after a few months of quietness because of the Covid-19 crisis. Since January 2020, 46,409 mt has been exported. That is 10.27% less than last year.
EU & Others
To the EU & others, Vietnam shipped 26,620 mt which is 5.61% higher than October 2019, and relatively similar to the quantity exported in September 2020. The total for the EU & others so far in 2020 is 251,437 mt meaning 18.11% higher than last year.
Just like in the past months, exports from Vietnam are higher than in 2019. However, imports are lower. This year is marked by the Covid-19 crisis that affected the trade of cashews, processing, and also consumption. After a few months of quiet, China has now been importing large quantities of kernels from Vietnam for two months.
Production of Raw Cashew Nuts
In terms of production, the Southern hemisphere is currently harvesting. Estimations for Tanzanian and Mozambique’s crop forecast very large crops.
Brazil’s crop is also expected to be larger than last year with slightly less than 150,000 tons. In Mozambique, the official forecast mentions 173,000 ton. This would mean a record high crop. Between 275,000 and 300,000 tons are expected in Tanzania.
In the northern hemisphere, the flowering period will start in the coming weeks. In Vietnam, the new leaves and branches in the cashew orchards are developing normally. Vietnam has been hit by 13 typhoons so far this season. These brought heavy rains, winds and flooding to the Northern and Central regions of Vietnam. However, the cashew orchards, located in the south have been spared from this disastrous weather. In the south of the country, the wet season is slowly leaving to make room for a drier period. Therefore, the cashew trees should start flowering in December; on time compared to other years.
In West Africa, the season is also starting off well.
Market situation
The cashew market in Europe as well as in the USA is relatively quiet. Roasters are covered for the next 6 months at least and it seems that buying decisions for the later positions are being delayed due to the uncertainty associated with the Covid-19 pandemic.
Prices for W320 kernels from Vietnam are still around USD 2,90-3,10 per lb FOB (depending on the shipper) but the underlying tone has become firmer. Reason for this is the increased buying interest from China which most probably is connected to taking positions for the Chinese New Year which is February 12th, 2021.
This increased kernel buying interest has prompted shippers again to buy more Raw Cashews resulting in higher prices for Tanzania RCN, currently trading at USD 1525 per mt. With these higher prices for RCN, the discrepancy with kernel prices is widening further which could well result in higher kernel prices for the nearby.
For later positions, however, it remains to be seen if the market can sustain these higher levels.
As mentioned above, crop forecasts from Tanzania, Mozambique, as well as Brazil are very optimistic. New cashew crops in India, Vietnam and Cambodia are developing well and if this continues during the next two months, these 3 major origins will produce normal to good crops. Then the question becomes: can the demand keep up with supply?
Westplein 58
Westplein 58
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